For your information I set out below the estimated reinforcement strength state for 2nd NZEF as it is likely to fluctuate during the next nine months.

The figures, which in many cases must be taken as approximate, have been arrived at on the assumption that the policy of returning leave personnel to the Middle East is as follows:

For the purpose of all calculations, the sick in hospital and in convalescent homes have been taken at a constant figure somewhere between 2500 and 3000 all ranks. This estimate is inclined to be high even for the Middle East. In a colder climate the sick rate would probably be reduced by 25 per cent.

The provision of officers for the Division presents no difficulty, there being a surplus for all arms of 400 on the establishments of 2nd NZEF. No figures with regard to officers are therefore shown.

Position on 14 July:

Position on 14 August

On the arrival in the Middle East of the Nieuw Amsterdam early in August with 6000 officers and men, the position will be as follows:

Note: By 1 October the Division will have absorbed its reinforcements and should be ready trained to take the field complete with its own Armoured Brigade.

Position on 14 December:

On the return of 5000 all ranks from the leave draft to the Middle East early in December, the position will be as follows:

Note: No wastage assessed for follow-on to HUSKY.

Position on 14 April:

On the return of 3200 leave draft to the Middle East in April next, the position will be as follows:

Note: No wastage assessed for possible losses in follow-on to HUSKY.

Conclusions:

These reinforcements are for any operations in the Middle East for the next twelve months. If casualties for the follow-on to HUSKY are not severe, it is considered that further operations in Europe can be envisaged safely with the estimated reinforcements available.