I agree completely with the opinion that it would be of no service to send the
Third Echelon unless they are to be immediately provided with arms and equipment up to a scale that will allow them to train and take the field. If the despatch to the
United Kingdom of the
Third Echelon should be delayed because of equipment difficulties their temporary despatch to
Fiji would no doubt have a salutary effect in the
Pacific. Since reading your above-quoted telegram, the Secretary of State for Dominion Affairs' telegram of 3 July (
No. 216) has been despatched and a copy read by the New Zealand Cabinet. It would appear now that British military policy is in favour of constituting the New Zealand Division in the
Middle East as soon as possible. I suggest that, subject always to the condition being made by the
New Zealand Government that mobilisation equipment is available upon their arrival, you agree to concentration. Although it would be bad enough in England to add to the number of mouths without adding to military strength, in Egypt it would be much worse. It is certain that the situation in the
Middle East is not as stated in my message of 26 May.
2 With
France out of the war and disarmed, hostile
Italy has adequate numbers of troops and aircraft in
Libya to threaten Egypt. If Germany attempts an invasion of England she would urge
Italy to make a move against Egypt. It would be difficult to synchronise the two efforts as a seaborne attack on the
United Kingdom could not be attempted after the windy season has begun in September and no serious offensive is likely in North Africa before October because of the heat. It would appear, therefore, that
Germany must move first, and if she has a bad failure
Italy's main offensive
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upon Egypt will be greatly influenced and probably given up. Taking the longer view, I feel that nobody can foresee how events will shape. With the failure of harvests in
Europe and the complete nature of the blockade,
Germany, and certainly
Italy, very soon will be hard pressed for food.
Germany is aware that we are re-equipping five divisions every two months and will improve upon that rate. When invasion would again be possible, that is, by May of next year, we shall have over forty divisions fully equipped and superiority in the air.
Germany must attack England or give up the project,
1 and I still feel that any such attack is an act of desperation doomed to failure.