III. The Growth in the Trade of the United Kingdom during the Second Half of the Century, 1852—1899. (See Diagram II.)

The figures upon which the curves in Diagram II. are based, represent "real" values, and comparisons between the two diagrams, or between specific years before and after the year 1853, are therefore impossible. Further changes were introduced by the authorities into the method of estimating the values of export and import commodities in 1870, and comparisons before and after this latter date are also untrustworthy. Studying Diagram II. with these two cautions in one's mind, we see that its chief feature is the gap between the export and import curves. The aggregate value of the imports has shown a more steady expansion than that of the exports; and for the whole period covered by the diagram the growth of our import trade has shown a page 34 tendency to keep pace with the increase of population, while that of our export trade has not been so satisfactory.

Up to 1872 the value of our export trade showed steady progress. Since that year the value of this trade has fluctuated about one level, viz., £230,000,000, and not until 1899—1900 has any marked progress been manifested. If expansion similar to that evident in the value of our import trade had taken place, the value of our export trade in 1900 would have been nearly £400,000,000.

The chief causes of this non-expansion in the value of our export trade during the closing quarter of the century are, a great fall in values of manufactured goods, and increased foreign competition. The latter will be discussed more fully in the last section of this article.