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Salient. Victoria University Student Newspaper. Volume 38, No 5. April 3 1975
Editorial
Editorial
Vietnam has hit the headlines again. In a matter of weeks remarkable changes have occurred in the amount of territory controlled by the PRG and the Saigon crowd respectively. Yet the amount of territory involved is nowhere as much as depicted by the press and the real story lies not so much in what territory has changed hands but what has happened to Thieu's army and once docile population.
In two weeks Salient will be publishing a supplement on Indochina which will include maps to show just what has actually happened. Without a map to refer to I shall just say that what, in fact, has been happening when province after province has 'fallen to the Communists' is that a province which is almost totally under the control of the Provisional Revolutionary Government often contains a provincial capital that is controlled by Thieu forces. This was certainly the case in the Central Highlands and in the northern provinces. All that has happened in the current 'offensive' is that the provincial capitals and major cities which have till now been isolated Thieu outposts in a sea of PRC territory have failed to PRG forces.
The PRG had promised that if Thieu kept up his breaches of the Paris Agreement (such as keeping 200,000 political prisoners in his gaols) they would be forced to pick up the gun again. This they have done. But the PRG is not North Vietnamese tanks in different colours. The original battles in the central highlands were mainly a result of Montagnard tribesmen from the area attacking the Thieu outposts.
But Thieu has been very careful on what stories the media have put out. A French journalist wrote a report saying that the 'offensive' was being conducted by a local tribesman and a few PRG regulars and was shot by Thieu forces 'trying to escape detention.'
In fact the only offensive Thieu has been able to mount is a press offensive. He has already closed down all the opposition press and over the last few years he has also deported all the foreign journalists who dared disagree with him (even Time and Newsweek have had correspondents deported). Thieu has complete control of news leaving South Vietnam and and so it is very hard to really comment on a lot of stones we are hearing about current events.
| 1. | Opposition to Thieu has been mounting for some time over his continued detention of political prisoners from the 'third force', his destruction of freedom of the press, and his continued war-mongering while the Saigon economy was in ruins. Demonstrations in Saigon had been beaten down by Thieu's police. |
| 2. | There is no doubt that morale in Thieu's army is at an all time low. Press reports try to say that it is a result of the current PRG offensive but even before the offensive the desertion rate in Thieu forces (in their own figures) was above 25% per annum. The demoralisation of Theiu's army is one of the causes of the success of the current offensive. Thieu forces have abandoned cities from the very beginning to numerically inferior forces and whole batallions have deserted to the PRG'. Thieu's best troops (the 1st and 2nd Divisions and smaller units) no longer exist due to casualties, desertions and captures. It would appear that one small push has sent the rotten Saigon army toppling. |
| 3. | There had been no indication that the PRG was preparing for an offensive. There had been no supplies build-up and two weeks before the offensive top US analysts predicted no offensives for at least a year. In fact the PRG is not mounting more than a small scale offensive. Thieu is mounting a large scale retreat. |
| 4. | It is hard to believe that the number of refugees in Da Nang varies between 500.000 and 1,500,000 depending on which news source you use. Also reports indicate that the US consulate was sacked in Da Nang and civilians were attacking Thieu troops. The recent movements against Thieu and the low morale of the army would indicate it is at least likely that some of the Da Nang population actively fought the 'government' forces. |
It is too soon to say just what is happening in South Vietnam but it seems that the Thieu regime is losing credibility fast. People in Saigon controlled areas are demanding the implementation of the Peace Agreements, they are demanding an end to the Thieu regime. The prestige of the PRG is growing daily as Thieu comes down harder and harder on dissident opinion and Thieu would appear to neither have a functioning army (provided he can find it) nor a helpful Congress on the other side of the Pacific.
— Bruce Robinson
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