Ricochets from the Portuguese Coup

On April 25—26 a military junta took over the administration in Portugal, displacing the extreme right-wing regime of Dr Caetano. How and why did this coup come about, and what does this portend for Portugal and for the African territories of Angola, Guinea Bissau and Mozambique

Portugal has long been the one 'underdeveloped' nation in Western Europe; by 'underdeveloped' one refers to the low literacy levels (about 40% of the population are illiterate), the low per capital income (about 120 pounds sterling per annum), and the massive class of poverty-stricken landless peasants that make up the majority of the population. Alongside this situation there has been a regime that under Salazar and Caetano has spent about 51% of its annual budget in waging ruthless wars in Africa against freedom movements of African nationalists in the territories of Angola, Guinea-Bissau and Angola. For 13 years a savage war involving the use of napalm, carpet bombing, concentration camps and the torture of prisoners has been carried out in the name of 'Portuguese civilisation'. Thousands of young male Portuguese peasants have been conscripted to fight the African wars, and something like another 100,000 have left Portugal to exile themselves in other parts of Europe rather than be conscripted.

What sparked off the recent coup? For some time elements of the Portuguese army had been dissatisfied with the conduct of the war in Africa, and the publication of a book 'Portugal in the Future' in February this year brought matters to a head. The book, the work of the popular soldier, General Spinola, spoke of the drain on Portugal's resources by the war, of the isolation of Portugal by the rest of the world, and of the fact that it will take 30 years to bring the Portuguese economy into line with the EEC countries, its neighbours.

Spinola called for self-determination for the African territories, and decried the myth of a civilising mission of Portugal in Africa. He called for an end to conscription and a more equitable distribution of Portugal's wealth and resources. No wonder such a book had such a bombshell effect.

Spinola was dismissed from his post as deputy-chief of the armed forces, and his chief, General Gomes, was also dismissed at the same time. The book caused a furore among right-wing government ministers and among the ruling elites in Portugal's land-owning and business community. But the message was there and it received support from many disaffected members of the armed forces. At the end of December 1973 there was an unsuccessful coup against the Caetano regime, and it emerged that General Arriaga had led the right-wing groups that caused the coup to fail. Arriaga had formerly been commander in chief in Mozambique and was a brutal and ruthless opponent of aspirations for African liberation.

Then with the dismissal of Spinola and Gomes there came another attempt by junior officers in the army to unseat the Caetano regime. These officers of the 5th Cavalry Regiment marched on Lisbon on March 16 but were intercepted and disarmed on the way by troops of the regime.

Now, again there has been a coup, and this time it appears to have been successful and a military junta led by Spinola has assumed power. Caetano has been banished to Madeira along with other of his ministers, and the regional commissioners in both internal and African territories have been dismissed from their posts.

The ricochets are already being felt around Africa, and especially in the Re-public of South Africa and Rhodesia. Spinola has announced his intention to seek political, not military, solutions to the wars in the Portuguese territories, and this means that if he is able to accelerate self-rule for Mozambique and Angola, the longevity of white-minority rule in the Republic and Rhodesia will be seriously jeopardised. South Africa has always looked upon the Portuguese territories as buffers which protect her from the bases of the liberation movement in independent Africa. At present these liberation movements have no direct access to the Republic and thus there is no overt struggle being waged in that territory If Mozambique should attain independence, then a corridor from Tanzania and Zambia would be opened to give direct access to the Northern Transvaal. And similarly another front would be opened up in Eastern Rhodesia.

If Angola should attain its independence there would be a greater access for liberation movements to cross into Namibia (now occupied by South Africa, illegally), and would expose South Africa to a vastly extended defence line. Vorster and Smith are already reacting to the news of the Portuguese coup and both realise that this could be a major threat to their capability of maintaining their minority regimes and the white supremacy of Southern Africa.

From the point of view of the liberation movements in Mozambique and Angola, (Frelimo in Mozambique, and the MPLA, FNLA and UNITA in Angola), it would seem that only complete internal self-government and independence will satisfy them. They have fought for this for 13 years against a Vicious regime that has denied them any human rights and has persecuted every attempt to gain a more just society. They will not accept anything less than complete independence, and whether Spinola will grant or be forced to concede that is not certain. What is certain is that with the present tide of opinion in Portugal and especially in the Portuguese armed forces, Spinola will not be able to carry on the struggle in Mozambique, Angola and Bissau by armed might. The morale of Portuguese troops and sett lers has been low and getting lower for months now, it cannot be re-generated to sustain a prolonged defence of these territories in the future. It may be months or even a year or so from now, but it seems that the gateways to independence in Southern Africa are being opened and unless they are to be sustained by the incursion of outside powers, or the movements of South African and Rhodesian troops in forward-defence positions, i.e. in Mozambique and Angola, then perhaps we are witnessing the beginning of the end for liberation of 38 million Africans in Southern Africa.