No stimulus

The Cold war, however no longer provides an adequate stimulus for alliances NATO and the Warshaw Pact are nourished less as time passes by fear of war between Russia and the West than by the exigences of the German problem Only the USA has viewed SEATO purely its an anti-commnunist league. If alliances are to persist in the absence of a clear and present danger they will need to be economic and cultural as well as defensive. So long as the superpower confrontation problem exists, alliances with countries other that the USA seem particularly desirable. One such country must be Japan; but Japan's image in the rest of Asia is unattractive and likely to become more so as her gallop along the road to affluence leaves the poor countries plodding even farther behind. An alliance with her would strain traditional friendships with countries like Malaysia and sorely test our. diplomatic skills.

Various UN agencies provide bridges across the gap between the primitive-traditional and the modern-ultramodern parts of the world and New Zealand must do what she can to maintain these and to extend them as the gap widens. But she can no longer regard the UN as a major guardian of peace and protector of small powers, UN helplessness in the face of trouble in Asia is evident enough. Moreover UN resolutions about Pacific islands have tended to distort orderly political and economic development. New Zealand will undoubtedly do what she can within the UN to help ease tensions within the poor part of the world .and between the two worlds of the rich and the poor, as well as between conflicting racial groups: but the outlook here is not encouraging.

A policy of neutrality or non-alignment for New Zealand is not feasible. She is irrevocably in the camp of the well-to-do. Her destiny is tied by unbreakable bonds to that of Australia. But, more important in the long run, neutrality or non-alignment are policies stimulated by the logic of the Cold War and will have no basis when this competition between communist and non-communist countries is largely submerged as I think it will be in the next few years. by the profounder division of the world between the primitive-traditional and the modern-ultramodern segments. There will of course be a period of transition and world was will remain a danger until this period ends. But the two super-powers have shown themselves to be keeply aware of this danger and anxious above all to avoid it Whether they will be able to deter China or some new member of the nuclear club from starting a nuclear conflict is a matter of deepest concern.

These are the main implications for New Zealand defence and foreign policy in the global system as I see it. I could add to them and enlarge on them if time and space permitted. I cannot see many policy choices The inter-meshing or integrating processes have already gone too far and short of nuclear catastrophe, are irreversible.