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Salient. The Newspaper of Victoria University College. Vol. 20, No. 5. June 14, 1956

The theory upset

The theory upset

When Gandhi moved from South Africa to India he moved from one peripheral peninsula to another, without touching Professor Toynbee's centre of equilibrium; but when he moved ho unset the status quo ante, and upset the Toynbee theory in anticipation by creating a new dynamic centre. When Mao Tse Tung marched North, and survived against all the laws of political gravity, he did the same kind of thing. If a new Mohammed comes, with a myth more powerful than Toynbee's, he may persuade Islam that oil is as unclear as pig's fat, or that it is holy water, and not for use. The next Hitler may be a Brazilian, with atomic missiles; and he may be successful. Such contingencies cannot be ignored, and such people are unpredictable. Yet it is they who influence history and make prognosis impossible.

When Professor Toynbee looks back his myth makes him selective. When he looks forward he looks into a teacup, and the tea-leaves he imagines he sees are the spots in his own eyes. But what charming eves they are; and how nice it would be to spend an afternoon with him playing intellectual parlour games, preferably with a stronger brew.

Anton Vogt.