The Pamphlet Collection of Sir Robert Stout: Volume 62

Agricultural and Pastoral Produce

Agricultural and Pastoral Produce.

Our annual production is a far more important matter than our accumulated wealth. Far more important because there can be no doubt that if our production is satisfactory, then, no matter how poor we may be, we must grow in wealth, unless we are altogether thriftless; while if our production is not satisfactory, we must grow poor, however great our accumulated wealth. In the three principal branches of production—viz., agriculture and pasture, mining and manufactures, we have statistics which give us a very fair idea of our position, and, fortunately, there are even better materials for ascertaining the position of Victoria. The two tables illustrating the production of our agricultural and of our pastoral industries (1886-7) are prepared on Mr Hayter's system, in order to give us as exact an idea as possible of how we compare with Victoria. The amounts of produce in both colonies are probably fairly accurate, but difficulties arise in respect of prices. The Victorian statist has prepared his list of prices from a number of returns showing the value of produce on the farm in every district of the colony. The prices are simply the average amounts that the farmers obtain; no account is taken of the value added by transport, &c. Now in this colony similar returns are not obtainable, so I had no resource but to make an estimate of the values. This I did by comparing the export returns (which, however, were only available for 1886) with the market reports and getting the results criticised by experts, who very kindly rendered their assistance. I have, I believe, made a very low valuation, but it must be remembered that the farmer does not get the whole amount shown in market reports and export returns. In the case of smaller crops the estimate is necessarily very rough. The value of dairy produce is shown by an estimate on Mr Hayter's system, but in case the amount should appear very large I may mention that I have checked it by the returns of butter and cheese given in our statistics and by an estimate of the average consumption of milk made by the American statistician, Mr Atkinson. The produce of cattle on Mr Hayter's system is based upon the number of breeding cows, al-lowing one calf per annum to each, and assuming that one-third of the calves are killed for veal. It includes the growth of animals in value, but for full particulars of the method I must refer you to the "Victorian Year Book," p. 450. The annual increase of sheep in Victoria is taken at one quarter of the total number of both sexes over six months old, which is the average arrived at by actual computation of a large number of cases; for New Zealand I have taken the increase at one-quarter of all sheep and lambs, but the result is, I think, not excessive, since when compared with the number of ewes it gives an average lambing of only 64 per cent. The increase of pigs is estimated at 30 per cent, and that of horses at 5 per cent, on the total numbers. If the rate of increase should appear, as it did to me in some cases, to be put too high, it may be checked by considering the total numbers of stock and allowing for the average duration of life, and I believe the result will be that it will be generally admitted to be mode-rate. The prices of stock are taken as an average of the prices obtaining for full-grown animals fit for the butcher in the case of cattle, sheep, and pigs, and for horses in their prime. My estimate for New Zealand is more arbitrary than in the case of agricultural produce, because the export returns, which give a rough average in that case, are useless in this, as only the very best classes of beasts are exported.

Name of Crop. New Zealand. Victoria. Gross product. Estimated price. Estimated value. Gross product. Price. Estimated value. £ s. d. £ £ s. d. £ Wheat ... ... 6,297,638 bushels 0 3 6 1,102,086 12,100,036 bushels 0 3 9 2,268,757 Oats ... ... 11,973,295 0 1 6 897,997 4,256,079 " 0 2 9 585,211 Barley ... ... 558,606 0 2 6 69,825 827,852 " 0 3 3 134,526 Potatoes ... 134,965 tons 2 0 0 269,930 170,661 tons 4 0 0 682,644 Other root crops—(turnips in N.Z.).. 318,653 acres 1 0 0 318,653 37,945 " 3 0 0 113,835 Hay ... ... 79,103 tons 3 0 0 237,309 483,049 " 3 13 0 1,763,129 Green forage-(oats in N.Z.) 98,029 acres 1 10 0 147,043 284,186 acres 2 10 0 710,465 Other crops ... 22,002 " 4 0 0 88,008 5,841 " 5 0 0 29,205 Garden and orchard produce 22,885 " 12 0 0 274,620 27,593 " 20 0 0 551,860 Other cereals, grapes, Ac. ... Not distinguished. 421,103 3,405,000 7,260,735

Agricultural Produce.—1886-7.

Comparative Table on Mr Hayter's System.

New Zealand. Victoria. Estimated value. Estimated value. £ £ Milk butter, and cheese from 279,136 "breeding" cows at £-5 each ... 1,674,816 From 335,727 "milch "cows at £8 10s ... 2,853,679 Estimated value of stock produced— 186,090 cattle at £5 each, and 1,023,495 223,818 cattle at £8 each 1,958,407 93,045 calves at £1 each 111,909 calves at £1 10s each 4,141,148 sheep at £1 10s each ... 1,035,257 2,675,100 sheep at 7s 6d each ... 1,003,162 83,370 pigs at £1 10s each ... 125,055 72,290 pigs at £2 10s each ... 180,725 9,369 horses at £8 each ... 74,952 15,430 horses at £8 ... ... 123,440 Wool exported, customs value ... 3,072,971 Wool exported (in excess of imports) ... Wool used in the colony, from returns of manufactures for 1885 ... 67,679 Wool used in the colony ... ... 123,860 Total ... ... ... 7,074.000 Total ... ... ... 8,911,336

Pastoral Produce, 1886.

Comparative Table on Mr Hanter's Systen.

Having drawn up his estimates of the value of agricultural and of pastoral produce, Mr Hayter adds the two totals together and gives the result as the value of the produce of rural industry; but, though I am unwilling to differ from so high an authority—and one whom have often suspected of being wrong, and in every case but this found to be right, I consider that before adding the totals we ought to deduct the value of the produce that is consumed by animals. The farmer does not make both the value of his hay and the value of the bullock that is fed upon it; he only makes the value of the bullock. This is so plain that Mr Hayter takes no account of the value of grass, because it is included in the value of stock. On the other hand, probably the bulk of the oats and a considerable proportion of the hay are sold off the farm, and consumed in towns or exported. The problem now is, how much of this produce are we to consider as being consumed on the farm, and therefore counted in pastoral produce? We have no data for deciding this, and we are further hampered by the comparison with Victoria, where the production of hay is such a large and disproportionate item. The best I can do is to suggest that we should consider one-quarter of the oats and one-half of the hay to be consumed on the farm, together with all the green forage (though a good deal of that must be sold), and the whole of the "other root crops," which will be consumed by sheep and cattle. On this basis I will estimate the net produce of rural industry, and if the process be objected to we can fall back upon the original table of gross produce for the purpose of comparing New Zealand with Victoria. The result of the comparison is to show a net produce of over millions in New Zealand, and over 141 millions in Victoria. To arrive at an idea of what this means to the farming interest, we must divide it by the number of persons engaged in the production. The numbers for New Zealand are taken from the census; the numbers for Victoria are from Mr Hayter's estimate Year Book, 1886-7, page 57. The result of the calculation shows a produce per head of £143 in New Zealand, against £104 for Victoria. If we adopt Mr Hayter's system, and take the gross product of both industries, we get the result of £160 in New Zealand and £118 in Victoria. Whichever calculation we take, the produce of New Zealand in proportion to the number of workers is far greater than that of Victoria. Low as our prices are, our produce is so vastly greater that its money value exceeds that of Victoria by the large amount thus shown. Under these circumstances, and in spite of the great efforts that have been made to stimulate manufacturing industries in Victoria, it may appear peculiar that there is a larger proportion of agriculturists in that colony than here. The class "Engaged in Pastoral Pursuits and Agriculture" contained in New Zealand 11.3 per cent, of the population, and in Victoria 13.8 per cent. But this disproportion is really only apparent itself. It is caused by a peculiarity which has constantly to be taken into account in this comparison—viz., our large families: if we deduct the "domestic" class from the total populations, and so get something more nearly approaching to, though still exceeding, the number of persons whose produce we can take into account, we get about 32 per cent, engaged in rural industries in New Zealand against about 30 per cent, in Victoria. If the further question be raised of how is it that prices are higher in Victoria, I suppose the general answer would be, because there is a larger town population to consume the products agriculture. The fact is, however, that it is not a question of town population; the whole population are consumers of agricultural produce, and instead of being more numerous in proportion to producers than in this colony they are less so, as is shown by the proportion of 11.3 per cent, of agriculturists in New Zealand against 13.8 in Victoria. The cause of higher prices is therefore not the superiority in number of the consumers.

The real cause plainly is, that in Victoria more labour is required to produce a given amount of agricultural produce. The higher prices are simply the result of the lower rate of production. The last point in this connection is that if the farmers and stockraisers suffer from the low prices, the rest of the colony must gain. The farmer, in the long run, cannot gain much from the superior productiveness of his land. Higher prices for freeholds or rents for tenancies, and lower prices for produce are the invariable result, but though the farmer may not be greatly the gainer, the community is, and the country which gets the largest return to a given amount of labour is the country which, other things being equal, must be the most prosperous in the long run.

The last thing to notice about the table of net produce is that the previous calculations do not include the whole produce of agriculture. There are some smaller items which have been omitted because no account is taken of them by Mr Hayter. I give the results of my calculations about them, and shall add the result to the value of produce when I come to calculate the total produce of the colony. They are:

Grass seeds, 1,072,922 bushels at 5s £268,230
Poultry, 1,679,021 head at 1s 6d 125,926
Eggs (two for each person per week), 1s 6d a dozen 361,545
Rabbitskins (exports for 1886) 65,694
£821,395

In addition to this there is all the produce of gardens under one acre in extent, as to which we have no data, though the value must be considerable.