Federation.

It is doubtful if New Zealand will join in the federation of the Australian Colonies, if this ever takes place. The distance of New Zealand from Australia interposes many objections to its submitting to a central government so far removed from its shores. On the other hand, a Customs' union, with free reciprocal admission of colonial products, possesses signal advantages to a Colony capable of such large production.

As regards the federation of the entire British Dominions New Zealand has on various occasions shown itself favourable to such a proposition. At present, however, it is hardly within the range of practical politics though a great deal of attention has been directed to it during recent years. Sooner or later it must come unless the Empire is to be broken up. In 1876 Sir Hercules Robinson made a very interesting speech at Albury on the subject of Australian Federation. In it he computed that at the end of the century the population of the Australian continent would be over five millions. He took 4 per cent. as the annual rate of increase. The increase per year has, however, been somewhat lower. Mr. Hayter, the accomplished statistician of Victoria, has lately estimated that the population at the beginning of 1900 will be 4,410,000, and with the addition of New Zealand and Tasmania will be close upon 5,300,000. Sir Hercules Robinson could not take into account the falling off of immigration during much of the intervening period. But if the gold discoveries in Western Australia prove as valuable as is expected it is quite likely his estimate will be realised. I will, however, to be safe, take an annual increase of 3½ per cent. and at that rate I find that Australia, New Zealand and Tasmania, will, in 1930, possess a population of 14,706,800. At a similar rate of increase Canada, including Newfoundland, will have at the same date a population of 19,243,950, or Australasia and Canada together, say 34,000,000. Now, I put it to you, is it possible that 34,000,000 of British people thoroughly saturated with the page 20 love of representative institutions will consent to be governed by an Imperial Parliament in which they have not adequate representation? And equally strongly I put it to you, will the people of the United Kingdom consent to bear the main cost of the defence of the Empire without much larger contributions than the Colonies will be inclined to grant, if they have not a voice in the expenditure of the money? These are the reasons why I say federation must eventually come or the Empire be disintegrated. For my part, I think that long before there is so large an increase of population as that I have indicated, the feeling on both sides will be in favour of the paramount necessity of Imperial affairs being regulated by a legislature in which all parts of the Empire are represented.