What about Increasing Enrolments ?

The attack on the principle of open entry is occuring at a time when university enrolments are increasing. In the 1970's, as the figures in Box 1 indicate there has been three main trends — a marked drop in the rate in increase in the 1972-74 period, a surge in 1975-76, and a steady increase in 1977-78:

N.B. These figures do not include Massey extra murals of whom there were 6,029 in 1978 compared with 2,204 in 1971.

The erratic nature of these changes make it difficult to predict future rolls. Nevertheless, the UGC has singled out eight points which have to be considered when making such predictions.

1.	Although primary school rolls are expected to drop by more than 80,000 over the next decade, those of the secondary schools are likely to continue to grow until about 1986.
2.	As a result, the rolls in forms 6 and 7 are also likely to rise after 1984, the period under consideration for estimating university enrolments.
3.	However, first year enrolments at university have not been a steady proportion of schools rolls in the higher forms.
4.	The proportion of pupils from form 7 who have gone on to university in the next year has dropped from 82.3 percent enrolling in 1971 to 62.9 percent enrolling in 1978.
5.	The proportion of form 6 pupils leaving school with University Entrance qualifications who have gone on to university in the next year has dropped from 30.8 percent enrolling in 1971 to 14.5% enrolling in 1978. It should be noted though that many pupils from form 6 delay their enrolment some years, so that by 1978 over 34% of the eligible 1974 leavers had enrolled.
6.	Within the universities, the proportion of first-year students returning for their second year of study has remained fairly steady at about 80% since 1972.
7.	Many of the students who first enrolled in the years to 1978 will still be in the universities for some years yet and the bulge of enrolments in 1976 has still to pass right through.
8.	Other matters to be taken into account in estimating rolls are the increasing number of older students without formal entrance qualifications who are accepted on provisional or special admission and those from overseas whose numbers vary in accordance with the Government's policy on the granting of student entry permits.

Given these eight factors the UGC has concluded that all thing being equal rolls are likely to increase from the 41,835 in '78 to about 48,400 in '84 — an increase of about 20%. The years 1980 - 1984 is the period of the next five year block grant or quinquennium to cover the operating costs of the universities. This 20% increase is one of the key negotiating points of the UGC in its battle with Treasury. The UGC can only argue that the next quinquennium must be increased substantially in real terms so that he universities will be able to adequately cater for the 20% increase.

However, both Mr Wellington and Treasury (the de facto Department of Educalead to reductions in the student enrolments or at least in the rate of increase. An obvious method of doing this is by gradually instituting restricted entry to such an extent that the open entry principle no longer applies. The UGC fully appreciates this situation.