Parliament meets for its lost pre-election session this week. It should end by the last week of October, leaving a clear month for campaigning before November 30. By the time the campaign starts the political situation could be very different from now, for the government can be relied on to pull quite a few rabbits out of the hat this session, and the way the opposition reacts to them will make an important difference to the voters' opinion of it in November.

Nelson Railway

The National party has already changed its tone on one important question—the Nelson railway. When the plan was first announced the National party, including Maryborough's Mr Shand, couldn't denounce it loudly enough. Mr Holyoake was away then, but since his return he has said several times that his party would first examine the plan thoroughly, if it got into office, and then decide what to do about it. This leaves the party conveniently uncommitted until after the election, with Mr Holyoake able to say that he can't be more definite until the government chooses to give more details of the scheme. This is a big step back from the Party's first outery about "a shocking waste of public money," and probably a prudent step, too.

In retrospect it was a good thing that the government did not consider calling Parliament into session in February to enact tax cuts early in the year. This idea was mooted in the Labour party last year, but it would have been a gamble to enact the cuts before the six-monthly accounts were made out. Now Mr Nordmeyer has found that taxes have not yielded the expected amount, and there is an £18 million deficit in the public accounts. This, gloomy enough in itself, would have made any tax cuts backfire badly, and the Government would have looked pretty silly.

Budget Possibilities

There are still a number of possibilities for the budget, however. The first items to receive attention this year will almost certainly be the 1958 penal taxes on beer, tobacco and spirits. It is not quite so likely that the last fourpence will be taken off petrol, but the others should have some, if not all, of sales tax imposed in 1958 removed. Because of the deficit, reductions in income tax are not so likely as they were at the beginning of the year. The remit before the Labour Conference proposing total exemption for all incomes under £1040 has no hope at all of serious consideration, but the overall rates may be reduced slightly. Estate and death duties will almost certainly be scaled down.

Promises Fulfilled

Most Labour promises have been carried out, and the party can also say that its measures to rescue the economy from the 1957-58 balance-of-payments crisis have been successful. However savage the 1958 budget was, the economy is once more in fairly good shape, partly because of the effects of the reductions in purchasing power caused by the penal clauses in the budget. If further tax remissions can be made this year Labour should be lucky enough to find that many people will have forgotten the dark days when petrol was 4/2 a gallon. With more money to come and go on the government will be able to carry out its few remaining promises, such as a 100 per cent, subsidy on capital expenditure on old peoples' housing. Measures like this could be a decisive factor in the election which will come soon afterwards, for the result is not at all predictable. Eighteen months ago Labour would certainly not have won an election, but things have improved a lot since then, and the government now has a fighting chance. National can not now hope merely to trade on the resentment at the 1958 budget, as they did quite successfully for a time.

Unknown Quantities

Outside Parliament several unknown quantities remain. The freezing industry dispute could develop into something nasty, with Mr Walsh decreeing an export ban while talks are still in the conciliation stage. On the other side a speaker at the recent South Island Federated Farmers meeting called for a "showdown" with the unions. This sort of talk, started by the shipping companies and echoed by some of the dumber members of the National Party, preceded the 1951 waterfront strike, and no one wants a repetition of that.

Candidates

Both parties have got well started on selecting candidates for the election. Labour are at a disadvantage here, for several of their older men, including the Prime Minister, obviously do not intend to retire, and the party does not seem determined enough to give them the necessary gentle push.

Labour's longest-serving member, H. G. R. Mason, has been in the house since 1926, while Clyde Carr and Mr Nash have served since 1928 and 1929 respectively. The latter two definitely intend to stand again. Three of the victors of the 1935 landslide, two of them ministers, still hold seats, and only one has so far announced his retirement. By contrast, only two National members have served since before 1940. To make matters worse for Labour, Mr Holloway, one of the best of the younger men, is leaving politics.

National will have a younger, fresher team. They are certain now to have the services of H. R. Lake, who has been nominated for the safe Fendalton seat vacated by Mr Watts. Mr Lake represented Lytteiton from 1949 to 1954, which was quite an achievement for any National man, and would be in line for a ministership if National win the election. Watts, a good businessman but no politician, is worth losing if a member of Lake's calibre is gained. There has been keen competition for the Otaki the selection committee had to deal with nine candidates. Expectation of a National victory seems to be great in some quarters. In Hawke's Bay the sitting member, usually automatically endorsed, suffered the unusual indignity of having to submit his name to a local party selection committee.

The Social Creditors remain an unknown quantity. No one can tell exactly where they get their votes from, and no one can forecast what their vote will be this year. The League has remodelled itself lately. Wilfrid Owen, after resigning the leadership, has now left the League, ostensibly on grounds of policy disagreement. The new leader, P. H. Matthews, is comparatively unknown; the man to watch is the vigorous and articulate secretary, C. W. Elvidge.

Social Credit now seems to have a hard core of voters, and in time this core should gradually build up until seats are gained. This was the pattern of Labour's rise. The only question is whether Social Credit will survive until the process starts bringing results.

—J.D.