Salient. An Organ of Student Opinion at Victoria University College, Wellington N.Z. Vol. 21, No. 7. June 11, 1958
Forecast Student Numbers
Forecast Student Numbers
In 1955 the Education Department produced an estimate of student enrolments at the constituent institutions up to the year 1965. These figures showed that Victoria University, from an enrolment of 2,300 in 1956, could expect an increase to 4,000 in 1965. Subsequently, in November of last year, revised estimates were produced which indicate that in 1965 we can expect between 4,330 and 5,190 students, and by 1972 between 5,650 and 7,250.
Enrolments in the years immediately preceding World War II were of the order of 1,000 students. During the war numbers fell somewhat, but from 1946 onwards the rush of returning servicemen increased the numbers to a little in excess of 2,000, a figure which remained stable for the next ten years. It was at one time expected that as the demand from ex-servicemen was satisfied the student members would revert to something near the pre-war figure, but as this group of students began to diminish, numbers were kept up by new entrants from the schools, reflecting the increased birthrate of the post-depression years.
This article was specially written for "Salient" by Dr. Culliford, Part-time assistant to the Vice-Chancellor, Public Relations Officer for the University, and a Senior Lecturer in the English Department.
The rapid increase, however, is just beginning. Student numbers increased by 150 in 1957, to give the highest enrolment ever at this University. This year they have increased by a further 250, and, as the Education Department's forecasts indicate, we can expect an annual and substantial increase in student numbers for many years to come.
There may be economic or political developments that will affect these forecasts, but the people upon whom the forecasts are based are already born, crowding the schools, and about to crowd the universities. Victoria is not alone in this problem. The increases Auckland has to face are greater, and Canterbury and Otago, in a more modest fashion, can look forward to a similar experience.